President Elect Trump’s victory has begun to create changes across foreign theaters where wars seemed to appear as a constant escalation.
In a remarkable statement shortly after Trump’s historic victory, participants against Israel and engaged in the ongoing wars in the Middle East have begun to announce the final cessation to their actions against commercial maritime shipping and attacks against Israel.
The Houthi Variable
The Houthi Spokesmen quickly provided a press speech announcing that their “operations in international waters were purely defensive, and we announce their final cessation.” According to a post on X by Defense Arabia.
Others on X have stated that they believe this is a lie, however, they have yet to provide evidence to the contrary.
Since 2023, the Houthi rebels have engaged in ongoing attacks via drones and missiles. They have taken part in attacks against Israel in cooperation with Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah over the past 12 to 18 months.
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Over 80 attacks have been exercised by the Houthis since October 2023 to the detriment of critical maritime choke points and commercial shipping. Furthermore, these attacks have had unfortunate outcomes as 4 sailors were killed and 2 vessels sunk.
In addition, it has created complications for supply chains running through the Suez Canal and maritime shipping across the Red Sea under the Biden-Harris Administration. As a result, it has forced commercial shipping to reroute across the Cape of Good Hope, increasing costs, and delaying supplies.
Others have argued that being in an election year and appeasing the far-left socialist agenda in the U.S. has also caused President Biden and V.P. Harris to hamstring their administration, thereby tying their hands from exercising options that could have avoided an unnecessary amount of turmoil across the Middle East.
One must also ask, how much of the seize fire can be attributed to Iran’s currency plummeting to an all-time low shortly after Trump’s historic victory?
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The Rial Variable
Not long after President Elect Trump was declared the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, the Iranian currency, the rial saw a steep decline of up to 703,000 per US dollar. A rebound followed that helped regain a portion of those losses. Today, the Rial sits at 691,000 per US dollar. (Data provided by bombast.com – prices are in Iranian Toman (1 Toman = 10 Rials))
However, this created questions over whether the quick Houthi cessation was partially influenced by this drop in economic stability from one of its staunches ally, as much as it is from the fear of the possible reprisal that awaits them from the new Trump Administration. As economic concerns surge in Iran over possible increases in sanctions by the new administration, some argue that the support well, both economic and arms from Iran to its proxies across the Middle East will dry over the next 4 years.
During a statement, Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that, “the election of the U.S. President has nothing to do with us, the general policies of the U.S. and Iran are constant. It doesn’t matter who becomes the President in the United States because all the necessary planning has been made in advance.” This statement could be a hint at the newly created BRICS alliance, which Iran’s membership is poised to aid the Nation in avoiding U.S. sanctions.
Iran officially joined the BRICS alliance in August 2023. Along with several other countries, Iran was invited to join the group during the BRICS summit held in Johannesburg, South Africa. As of January 2024, Iran, along with Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, officially became part of the BRICS grouping, which initially consisted of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
Iran’s entry into BRICS aligns with its interest in strengthening economic and strategic ties with non-Western economies, potentially reducing its reliance on Western financial systems and countering some effects of international sanctions.
However, the steep decline in the Rial signals mounting worry that President Elect Trump will reimpose strict economic sanctions, which could further strain Iran’s already struggling economy.
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The Hamas Variable
According to a report on Newsweek, A senior Hamas official has called for an immediate end to war after President Elect Trump’s win. However, the notion that Hamas’ senior official stated this in fear of reprisal from the new U.S. administration would be misleading. As the report outlines, Hamas senior officials seem to imply that they want the new Trump administration to rein in Netanyahu.
While the Biden-Harris administration continue to express sympathy and support over the last 4 years for the plight of Palestinian people, the argument from pro-Palestinian supporters is that they’ve accomplished very little to rein in or prevent additional support in arms to the Jewish state.
While Spokesperson Basem Naim, who is a Hamas Political Bureau member outlines how their coalition seeks an end to the war, they take very little to no responsibility for their actions which was the spark that lit the candle and pushed stability in the Middle East off the precipice.
